IBM's 5 predictions for the future
(Updated by Endah)
Every year, IBM offers five predictions of innovations the company expects in the near future.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Governments and companies will collect personal data to improve services and schools
- IBM released a list of five innovations it thinks will take off in the next five years
- Smart schools that learn about students and cities that learn about citizens will emerge
Often in the current
system, learning disabilities are not always caught, special talents
overlooked, and students fall between the cracks.
But in the future,
schools could use tracking software and analytics tools to improve
education. They will gather information about how a student performs and
learns, discovering patterns, problems and promise that would otherwise
get lost from year-to-year, if they're noticed at all.
Information gathered
about each student could become part of a larger data set used to learn
what lessons and methods are working or failing across an entire school
system.
Smart classrooms that learn about students are just one of the major technological advancements IBM thinks we'll see in the near future.
IBM has been predicting futuristic trends since 2005, releasing annual
year-end lists of five technologies that it thinks will come to fruition
in the next half decade.
This year, most of the
predictions are optimistic takes on what can be accomplished when the
medical industry, governments, schools and computer systems gather and
analyze unprecedented amounts of data about people, from their behavior
and patterns as groups over time all the way down to a single person's
DNA.
A school that learns
about its students to provide a more effective education. A city that
improves public services based on citizens behaviors, schedules and
movements. A digital assistant that monitors your health or improves
your online security. Customized medical treatments based on an
individual's DNA. And a return to local, in-person shopping by bringing
customizing technology into brick and mortar stores.
"it is important that
people stop and take a little bit of time to look at the stuff that's
going to move the needle for society," said Bernie Meyerson, IBM's vice
president of innovation, who heads up the project, called 5 in 5.
Meyerson, who has been at
IBM for 34 years, starts by looking at common ideas and unifying themes
across various industries to identify common threads. In the eight
years the company has been doing the project, Meyerson predicts it has
had a hit rate of around 50 percent.
Many of the past
predictions had a positive social angle, like a new chemical formula
that could make it easier to dispose of plastic, or making recycling a
profitable venture for cities. Some are continuing to take off, like the
emergence of telemedicine. Others, like computers that can smell, might
never make it to the mainstream.
1. Can smarter schools make smarter kids?
This year, Meyerson is
most excited about the classrooms of the future. IBM is already testing
out big data in schools with a program in a Georgia public school
district serving 170,000 students. The project aims to improve
graduation rates by tracking everything a student does -- including
attendance, test scores, how they interact with electronic content, and
what they are being taught in the classroom -- and suggesting
improvements to tailor their educations.
"The education system
works for you, it actually learns about you as time goes. I think that's
a tremendous plus," said Meyerson.
2. Self-correcting cities
Cities are also in a
unique position to gather data about people's daily lives. They can use
technology to learn more about the behaviors and needs of large numbers
of people densely packed into small geographic areas. For example, a
city could determine the volume of people waiting on a train platform at
any given time and instantly make small adjustments to the train
schedules to ease congestion and delays.
Mobile devices could
increase participation in local government, with people reporting
issues, communicating with politicians and make their voices heard far
more effectively online than if they were in town hall meetings. Online
petition sites such as Change.org and digital bullhorns like Twitter are
already having an impact on local politics.
3. It sees you when you're sleeping, it knows when you're awake
On the personal level,
IBM thinks "digital guardians" will emerge in the next five years. A
program can learn everything about your online habits to confirm your
identity and better detect when something is amiss. If you suddenly
start uploading large volume of personal and financial data to a server
in Eastern Europe, it might deduce that you have been hacked.
The same technique can
be used offline, using data collected from sensors in smartphones and
wearable technology to monitor you physical activity and health. The
accelerometer in your smartphone can detect a loss in motor control and
set off an alarm to summon medical help.
"It literally creates an image of you. It knows who you are and what you do and how you behave," said Meyerson.
4. Medical treatment tailored to your DNA
Doctors take your
vitals, flip though a manila envelope filled with a paper history of
your previous visits and run tests to decide on the best treatment.
IBM predicts that in the
future, computers will be able to see exactly how a treatment will
affect an individual based on detailed medical records that include
detailed information, including DNA. People have different reactions to
drugs and treatments, and this would cut down on the amount of time
spent figuring out the best course through trial and error.
The company is already
working with health care partners on systems that will learn about
patients over time and, eventually, take this type of health care to the
cloud so doctors anywhere could benefit from the data.
5. Local shopping stages a comeback
No matter how fast and
free Amazon Prime shipping is, physical store still have a place in our
lives. They might even see a resurgence in the future by adopting some
of the technology their online siblings have fine tuned.
"There's a certain
category of product, and it is nontrivial, where there's a lot of
resistance to doing something online without first getting your hands on
it," said Meyerson.
The futuristic
experience starts with opting in and sharing more information about
yourself, like your buying patterns over time. Walk in to your local
store and it will know exactly what you're looking for -- what products
you usually buy at a certain time of year or the week, favorite brands,
allergies, that you love cheddar but would never touch American cheese.
The store employees could make recommendations based on your past
interests.
The future is already here
Whether you think the
ideas are creepy or brilliant, they are already on the way. These
innovations are not just far-off fantasies, they're already starting to
be developed and used in the real world, though still in early stages.
The issues associated
with governments, doctors and companies collecting increasing amounts of
person data are also already in the spotlight. In the past year, there
has been an uptick in awareness about what personal information is being
collected about us and how it can be used by corporations hoping to
make more money and by law enforcement.
IBM's predictions focus
on the other side of bulk data collection: more efficient systems
tailored to keep people safe and healthy, encourage civic engagement and
improve public services, help kids perform better in school, and
support local businesses.
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